Forecast Last Updated at Thursday, January 29, 2015 at 6:53AM

Afternoon Rain Showers

A strong cold front will move across the area this evening bringing much colder air with it. Just ahead of the front, a broken line of rain showers is expected to move through this afternoon. Then, behind the front, scattered flurries and snow showers are expected in the mountains. A few flurries may make it east of the mountains, but don’t get your hopes up in the Foothills. The big story will be the wind and cold tonight into Friday. 45+ mph wind gusts are expected in the mountains with gusts nearing 30-35 mph in the Foothills. The wind dies down Friday night allowing temperatures to drop off quickly into the teens and 20’s. As we head into the weekend, temperatures rebound some on Saturday, then drop back down Sunday. Saturday looks dry, but we can’t say the same for Sunday.

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Thursday Hi: 50 Lo: 29 Partly sunny; A few afternoon rain showers; Light wind becoming SW 5-15 mph & gusty (switching out of the NW tonight)

Friday Hi: 44 Lo: 21 Early clouds, then mostly sunny; Breezy; NW wind 10-15 mph & gusty, diminishing Fri. night

Saturday Hi: 49 Lo: 29 Partly sunny; Light SW wind

Sunday Hi: 45 Lo: 29 Cloudy; Daytime & early evening rain showers

Monday Hi: 40 Lo: 18 Decreasing clouds; Chilly

Further Out

Tuesday - Scattered clouds; Remaining cool; High near 40 degrees; Low in the mid 20s
Wednesday - Mostly cloudy; Light daytime rain possible; High in the lower 40s; Low in the mid 20s

Forecast Discussion

On the weather map this morning, low pressure is moving through the Midwest with a cold front trailing SW into Texas. Ahead of the front, a broken line of showers extends from Michigan to Mississippi. That line of showers is expected to race across western NC this afternoon with generally light rainfall amounts. Behind the front, a much colder airmass moves in on a gusty, NW wind. In the mountains, that NW wind will lead to upslope snow showers and flurries tonight into Friday morning. Initially, some rain may mix in for the mountain valleys. Much of the SW NC mountains will see a dusting at most through Friday morning. However, the favored upslope areas north and west of Asheville could see an inch or two. For now, no snow is expected east of the mountains.

Really, the bigger story with this front will be the cold and windy conditions that develop tonight and continue on through Friday afternoon. In the mountains we are expecting wind gusts in the 35-45 mph range with 25-35 mph gusts in the Foothills. The wind, of course, will make it feel even colder. High pressure builds back in Friday night allowing the wind to diminish.

The high moves east over the weekend with a southerly wind bringing moisture and relatively milder air back into the area briefly on Saturday. Then, the forecast becomes more uncertain as we head into Sunday and Monday. An upper level disturbance, originating near Alaska, will reach WNC on Sunday. However, the models have had a harder time with this feature. For now, we are thinking rain areawide on Sunday followed by a changeover to snow or snow showers in the mountains Sunday night. Temperatures will be more borderline in the Foothills, so for now we are not expecting a changeover there, but it bears watching.

Behind that system we get another shot of much colder air. The next system reaches the area on Wednesday with some light precipitation possible.

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