RaysWeather.Com
Winter 2009-10 Fearless Forecast

Introduction

The 9^th Edition of the Fearless Forecast is ready for your review. In the end, we will conclude that the Winter 2009-2010 will have:

• One of the three snowiest since 1995-1996 with 110% of the long-term average snowfall and 155% of the 10-year average.

• Overall temperatures will be about 3 degrees less than average.

Last year's winter behaved almost exactly as expected. For example, we forecast 35” of snow in Boone and 36” actually fell. The Beech Mountain forecast was for 72”, actual was 77”. It's not going to get better than that. An evaluation for winter forecasts since 2001 gives us three A's, three B's, one C, and one F.

This year, I'll spare you the long complaints about some winter forecasts but I still: 1) wish NOAA would produce a real forecast rather than a probability scheme and 2) believe any long-range forecast that does not give a rationale should be ignored.

Rationale

The RaysWeather.Com Winter 2009-10 Forecast is based on the following factors:

• The current state of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• Less than normal polar ice

• Recent climate trends (absence of drought for the first time in three years and a 20+ year snow drought overall).

1. The Equatorial Pacific is forecast to be in a Moderate El Nino state this coming winter.

   
    

   Moderate El Nino events in the Southern Appalachians are characterized by colder and snowier than normal winters. The chart below shows snow amounts for Boone NC classified by the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) state.

   
    

   The next chart narrows the winters to specifically the ones that best match what is expected for this coming winter—a Moderate El Nino. Note that temperatures have averaged 3 degrees below average in these winters.

   
    

2. Once in a while we see news reports of a "shrinking polar icecap". This year the Arctic Polar Ice Cap is not quite as “shrunk” as the previous two years; however, it is still well below the long-term average. See http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ for details. Less polar ice would imply less snow and less cold overall.

3. Current climate trends have three important data items.

   1. The 2.5-year drought ended in the summer. This will be the first year since 2006 where we will enter winter with at least normal surface water conditions. Actually we are now somewhat wetter than normal. This would imply a cooler and snowier winter.

   2. Even though last winter had more than the 10-year average snow, the 20+ year snow drought shown in the graphic below tempers our enthusiasm for a snowy winter.

      
       

Forecast

Boil it all down, and here's the RaysWeather.Com Winter 2009-10 Fearless Forecast:

• Total snowfall: 110% of the long-term average, and 155% higher than the 10-year average.

• Temperatures: Colder than normal temperatures (3 degrees below average).

• Caution: One bit of warning no one will enjoy... The weather pattern this summer and fall also hint that in addition to above-average snowfall, more ice (freezing rain and sleet) may also occur this winter, especially in the favored areas along the Blue Ridge and into the Foothills and Piedmont.

• Confidence level: We have slightly higher confidence than usual for this long-range forecast (but "usual" for a seasonal forecast is highly uncertain!)

Below is forecast snow totals for selected Western NC Cities:

City	Expected Total Snow/Ice for '09-'10
Asheville	16"
Banner Elk	50"
Beech Mountain	90"
Boone	45"
Hickory	11"
Jefferson and West Jefferson	26"
Lenoir	11"
Morganton	13”
Sparta	23"
Spruce Pine	20"
Sugar Mountain	80"
Waynesville	19"
Wilkesboro	15"